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Inflation Targeting: Lessons from the International Experience

Ch.7 "United Kingdom: The Central Bank as Counterinflationary Conscience"の一部をメモ。

• Callaghan's Labor government had begun publishing monetary targets in July 1976, in accordance with an IMF support arrangement. Its commitment to those targets, however, was doubtful at best, as suggested by its reliance on incomes policies (wage-price controls) to constrain inflation, and on taxes on high-interest bank deposits (the "corset") to reduce the growth of M3, its target aggregate.
• The incomes policy collapsed in the "winter of discontent" of 1978-79.
• On taking office, the Conservative government was faced with inflation that was rapidly rising rapidly from levels already above 10%.
• In the government's first budget, presented in March 1980, the Chancellor, Sir Geoffrey Howe, announced a five-year plan of annual targets for M3 growth.
• Disinflation was successful, but the first two targets for M3 were overshot by wide margins. The unexpectedly high rate of M3 growth resulted from a set of measures announced as part of the Medium-Term Financial Strategy, measures that abolished the corset and allowed banks to engage in mortgage lending. Those rule changes led to fierce competition between banks and building societies for the deposits.
• The government opted to reset the targets.
• In the 1984, 1985, and 1986 budgets, targets for both M3 and M0 were announced; thereafter, for M0 only. （なんというグダグダ）
• In the Spring of 1987, Chancellor Lawson embarked on a policy of "shadowing the DM" by keeping sterling in a narrow band at around 3.00 deutschmarks per pound. In 1986 and 1987 the UK was in the midst of a boom, but the Bank's instrument interest rate, the bank lending rate, was cut from 9% to 7.5% between December 1987 and May 1988.（なんという朝令暮改）
• With the inflationary pressures becoming rapidly apparent, monetary policy tightened sharply in 1988. But was too late to prevent headline inflation from rising to a peak of 10.9% in September 1990. Moreover, the UK was in deep recession, with real GDP falling by 2% during 1990. （ひー）
• Monetary targets were abandoned in all but form when on October 8, 1990, the UK joined the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM).
• In September 1992 the foreign exchange crisis forced the government to choose between attempting a prolonged and expensive defense of the exchange rate and leaving the ERM; the government opted for the latter despite the potential damage to credibility.
• The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Norman Lamont, announced an inflation target at a Conservative Party conference on October 8, 1992.

関係ないけど、wikipediaのゲイツケルから。

珍しい自己免疫疾患である全身性エリテマトーデスに突然襲われた彼は、1963年1月18日に56歳で死去した。彼の死後、ハロルド・ウィルソンが新たに党の指導者となった。ゲイツケルの死が突然かつ予想外であったため、不正行為に巻き込まれたのではないかとの憶測を呼んだ。最もよく知られた陰謀論はKGBの陰謀との説であり、ウィルソン（おそらく彼自身もKGBの一員）が首相となることを確実とするために実行されたという。この主張はピーター・ライトの物議を醸した著作、『スパイキャッチャー (Spycatcher) 』（1987年）によって再び注目を集めたが、これまでに明るみに出た証拠はソ連からの亡命者、アナトリー・ゴリーツィンの証言のみである。

ほーウィルソンはKGBの一員だったと。